Monday, May 11, 2015

Ontario Silver Medal for Job Growth over 2013-18

(Updated January 2019) Employment data for the 2018 calendar year show PEI in front with 3% annual job growth vs. 2017. (Data not seasonally adjusted.) 
Alberta took the silver position at 1.9%. (For most of 2018, oil prices were higher than at any time since the recent 2014 post-recession peak. If prices remain at current low levels, Alberta job growth may fall back again.) 
Ontario took bronze at 1.6%. (Let's call 2018 the last year when the Wynne Liberal policies were in effect. There's no evidence yet that the new Ford government's "open for business" positive thinking has boosted Ontario's trend job growth. Annual job growth was actually a bit weaker in the second half of 2018 at 1.4% when we compare the last 6 months of 2018 with Premier Ford in power against the last 6 months of 2017.)  
Quebec finished 6th at 0.9% for 2018/2017 full calendar year job growth. 
(Data from here on needs updating) As for annual data complete through December 2018, let's treat 2013 as the base year for comparison -- the last full year of the Parti Quebecois government in Quebec and the last year that we could say that previous Premier Dalton McGuinty's policies were in effect in Ontario with current Premier Kathleen Wynne taking over in February 2013. Ontario ranks 2nd in job growth with 2013 as the base year averaging 1.x% over the 5 years to 2018 and Quebec ranks 3rd with 0.9x% annual job growth when employment averaged for all 12 months of 2018 is compared with 2013.
British Columbia (BC) reigns supreme over this period averaging 2.x% annual job growth. There's more to political success than employment growth. The BC Liberal government was defeated in May 2017 in the midst of this provincial job boom.
Over a longer period, employment growing faster in Quebec than in Ontario is one of the little-noticed economic stories of this millenium. Quebec's annualized average job growth of 1.3% has exceeded Ontario at 1.2% (2018 vs. 2001). Quebec ranked 4th among the provinces over this period behind Alberta (2.15%), BC (1.6%) and Saskatchewan (1.3%). The 3 westernmost provinces benefited from the oil and gas boom until 2014.
Quebec's reputation as one of Canada's economic tortoises dates back to the last century. Quebec jobs rose at a 1.2% annualized rate over 25 years to 2001 from 1976 -- the year that the PQ was first elected. The PQ was in power for 16 years of this quarter-century period from 1976 to 2001. Quebec ranked 7th in Canada annualized average job growth. Alberta (2.6%), BC (2.4%) and Ontario (1.9%) were Canada's economic hares from 1976 to 2001.
Quebec's job growth history fits the tortoise vs. hare metaphor quite nicely. Quebec's job growth since 2001 has continued at about the same pace as the 1976-2001 period. But, Ontario, once one of Canada's economic hares, fell back behind Quebec's job growth pace.
The last 5 years marked a restoration of Ontario's superior job growth performance vs. Quebec. With populists now in charge in both provinces and focusing on non-economic issues, who can say what the future will bring? 
Over short periods, structural good luck and bad luck may play a larger role than public policy. For example, job growth was relatively strong in Ontario over the 5 years of the Wynne government even though Premier Wynne and most of her Cabinet treated conventional economics with disdain. Over time, the left-wing populism of the previous Ontario government and right-wing populism of the current government (both of which reflect the populist instincts of voters who favour lower taxes and more government intervention at the same time) may reduce Ontario's long-term economic growth.