(To be updated soon with 2018 data)
In new Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s election platform, he committed his government to:
In new Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s election platform, he committed his government to:
·
“working with the provinces and territories to
set (greenhouse gas) targets”
·
“attend the December 2015 United Nations
Climate Change Conference in Paris, and will invite all Premiers to join him”
With the new government’s new accent on working with the
provinces in this area, let’s look at the record so far with a special focus on
GHG emissions by province.
The Chrétien/Martin government ratified the 1997 Kyoto Protocol and committed Canada to
reduce GHG emissions. Canada’s average emissions over 2008-2012 were to be 6% below the 1990 level. In 2005, the last
year that the previous Liberal government was in office, Canada’s GHG
emissions were 21% above the 1990
benchmark.
To be fair to former Prime Minister Harper, even if he had
wanted to, he could not possibly have met the Kyoto commitment that he
inherited when he took office at the start of 2006. However, he did not
want to comply with Canada’s Kyoto commitment. He sneered at “so-called GHG
emissions” and dismissed Kyoto as “fun for a few scientific and environmental elites in
Ottawa, but (for) ordinary Canadians ... the benefits are negligible”.
The
Harper government formally withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol.
The provinces were not bound
by the Kyoto Protocol. However, the provinces control many policy levers needed
to reduce GHG emissions – e.g., ownership and/or regulation of electric power,
share the gasoline tax with the federal government.
Environment Canada collects
and publishes comparable estimates of GHG emissions by province. No province met
Canada’s national target of a 6% GHG reduction between 1990 and 2008-12. However,
Quebec came close with a -5% reduction. Ontario at -3% was the only other province to reduce GHGs over that
period. But, these reductions in Canada’s 2 most populous provinces were dwarfed
by GHG increases in the three westernmost provinces – Saskatchewan (nearly +60%), Alberta (just over +40%) and British Columbia (BC +15%). Thanks to the GHG-intensive
boom in western oil and gas production, GHGs
rose by over 16% for Canada as a whole vs. up 7% in the USA, which never ratified Kyoto.
In the 2009 Copenhagen
Agreement, Harper adopted Chrétien’s strategy of copying the American target – 2020 GHG emissions 17% below
the 2005 level.
So far, Canada is doing a bit better with our Copenhagen commitment. The latest data for 2018 show Canada’s GHG
emissions -2% below the 2005 benchmark vs. -12% reduction in the USA. However, neither Canada nor the USA will likely hit the Copenhagen target of a 17% GHG reduction by 2020. Canada is far away from reaching this target and the American federal administration of Donald Trump has abandoned GHG reduction policies.
At the provincial level, Nova Scotia (NS) is leading the way with 2017 GHGs almost 33% below the 2005 level. New Brunswick (NB) is 2nd at -24% and Ontario 3rd at -22%. PEI and Quebec are tied for 4th at -10%. Alberta (+18%) and Saskatchewan (+14%) remain the laggards. However, thanks to low oil and gas prices slowing resource production, GHGs in
those provinces have not grown as fast from 2005 to 2017 as was the case from
1990 to 2005.
Looking at the full 1990-2017 period spanning both Kyoto and
Copenhagen, NS (-20%) is the leader followed by Ontario 2nd at -12% and Quebec 3rd at -11%. However, GHGs have grown fast enough in Saskatchewan (+76%), Alberta (+58%) and BC (just under +20% ) to leave Canada’s total for 2017 19% above
the Kyoto Protocol’s 1990 benchmark (vs. 1% rise over the same period in the
US).
In the new Paris Agreement, the Justin Trudeau government set yet another target for Canada -- a 30% GHG reduction from 2005 by 2030. Canada has finally set a different target than the USA. President Obama committed Americans to reduce total GHGs by 26% below their 2005 level by 2025. However, neither Canada nor the USA has ever had a plan to reach their GHG reduction targets. And, the Trump Administration has cancelled the USA's Paris commitment announced by then President Obama.
In the new Paris Agreement, the Justin Trudeau government set yet another target for Canada -- a 30% GHG reduction from 2005 by 2030. Canada has finally set a different target than the USA. President Obama committed Americans to reduce total GHGs by 26% below their 2005 level by 2025. However, neither Canada nor the USA has ever had a plan to reach their GHG reduction targets. And, the Trump Administration has cancelled the USA's Paris commitment announced by then President Obama.
